This article was published in the The Fredericksburg Free-Lance Star, and shows that recent stats are beginning to show signs that the real estate market may be positioning itself to stabilize.
Increase in home sales raises recovery hopes
October 23, 2008 12:16 am
BY BILL FREEHLING
A trend of higher sales and lower prices in the Northern Virginia housing market has Realtors hopeful that the market will return to a more normal state by spring.
The Virginia Association of Realtors held a conference call yesterday to discuss sales and price data between July and September. Statewide, housing data are little changed from last year's third quarter, but the Northern Virginia market saw sharply higher sales and lower prices.
There were 1,067 homes sold in the Fredericksburg area during the third quarter, a 15.7 percent jump from the year-ago period. Median sales prices dropped 19.5 percent; they were $230,000 in September for the Fredericksburg area--which comprises the city and Spotsylvania, Stafford, King George and Caroline counties.
The Greater Piedmont, Dulles and Northern Virginia markets all experienced comparable percentage changes in the third quarter to the Fredericksburg area.
That trend, coupled with sharply reduced new housing starts, is bringing home inventory levels back to a more healthy ratio. For example, in the Fredericksburg area, there was an 8.8-month supply of houses in September, down sharply from the 20.6-month supply in January.
Realtors generally consider a 4- to 6-month supply of houses to be the sign of a healthy market, but the notable decrease in Fredericksburg and throughout Northern Virginia is one of the factors that Director Lisa Fowler of George Mason University's Office of Housing Policy Research pointed to as one of the "signs of strength" cropping up in the regional housing market.
The trend of rising sales and falling prices has been most extreme in Prince William County, which has been hit hard by home foreclosures. Third-quarter sales there rose 144.6 percent from the same period in 2007, while median sales prices dropped 42.4 percent.
Realtors on the call yesterday said the trend should continue in the fourth quarter and predicted that a leveling off of foreclosures and continued declines in new-home construction should stabilize the market.
Christine Todd, CEO of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors, called 2008 "the year of the cleanup," as investors and bargain-seekers sweep foreclosures off the market.
Statewide, Virginia's economy and housing market are holding up better than nationwide, Fowler noted. Foreclosures in the state are mostly a Northern Virginia problem, with the region accounting for about 80 percent of Virginia's foreclosure activity.
Statewide, median home sales prices in the third quarter rose 1 percent from the same period a year ago. Sales dropped 4 percent.
Bill Freehling: 540/374-5405Email: bfreehling@freelancestar.com
Copyright 2008 The Free Lance-Star Publishing Company.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment